First-Entry Calculator

Tony Baker October 31, 2007

This calculator will determine a date of first-entry into the New World based on assumptions you supply. It is divided into archaeological record assumptions and population dynamics assumptions. The assumptions pertain to the time period from first entry to 10,000 BP. One needs to use the calculator a number of times with different assumptions to get a sense how sensitive the various assumptions are.
Archaeological Record
Number of projectiles lost-to or deposited-in the archaeological record in North and South America. Express your assumption as projectiles per square kilometer (e.g. 0.5, 1.5, or 10). There are 42.33 million square kilometers on these two continents.

Number of projectiles made and deposited in the archaeological record per year per person (e.g. 2, 8, 15.9). Person means men, women, and children.
Population Dynamics (see note below)
Choose an age for the start of female fertility. Choose a duration (years) for female fertility. Choose an age for the oldest person in the population.

Population size of the first-entry band. This includes adults and children.

Number of children (girls & boys) per mother that survive to age of fertility. This is the most sensitive of all the assumptions. Fractional values are acceptable (e.g. 2.6, 3, or 3.256).
Date-of-First-Entry (years BP)      Population Status
Population (thousands) at 10,000BP      Time (years) required to double population
Total projectiles (millions) deposited in archaeological record by 10,000 BP.

Note -- The default values in the three drop-down boxes "start of female fertility", "duration of female fertility", and "oldest person in population" yield the fastest growing population. To slow the growth, change these values.